Interviews | Society | East Asia

AI and the Risk to Democracy

Insights from Matthew Botvinick.

The Diplomat author Mercy Kuo regularly engages subject-matter experts, policy practitioners, and strategic thinkers across the globe for their diverse insights into U.S. Asia policy. This conversation with Dr. Matthew Botvinick  – author of “AI and Political Reform: The Risk to Democracy and How to Respond” (Princeton University Press 2026), world-renowned AI researcher and neuroscientist, senior fellow at Yale Law School and member of the technical staff at Anthropic, leading research on AI and the rule of law – is the 529th in “The Trans-Pacific View Insight Series.” 

Explain how AI will pose fundamental challenges to constitutional democracy.

We are in a remarkable political moment right now, where two trends are converging. First, AI is generating feelings of insecurity and vulnerability across society. Second, in many democracies, trust in government institutions is low – in the U.S., trust is at historic lows. This is a combustible combination, because it provides ideal conditions for what has been called “the demagogue’s playbook,” where populist sentiment is exploited by political leaders to undermine democracy. 

Democracy has always been vulnerable to this risk. The problem now, though, is that AI dramatically raises the stakes. As others have noted, if an authoritarian government can get a foothold, AI makes it much easier for such a government to entrench itself, through surveillance and control of the information citizens can access or share. So the problem is two-fold: AI is creating conditions that can be exploited by aspiring authoritarian leaders, and it is also making available tools that such leaders might use to achieve their goals.  

It is important to add that all of this is about risks, not certainties. In fact, if democracies rise to meet the moment, AI might prove to be a benefit to democracy, rather than a detriment. The first order of business is to get our institutional houses in order, instituting government reforms – in emergency law, surveillance law, separation of powers, and free speech doctrines – that increase democratic resilience. If we can do that and make it past the immediate challenge, then we can start thinking about how AI might be used to empower and inform citizens, support democratic deliberation, and enhance government transparency and accountability. If we are careful and strategic, AI may be a boon rather than a curse. 

Examine the dynamics between rising powerful AI systems and eroding democratic institutions and implications for political and economic freedom.

Democracy depends on a balance between the power of government and the power of society. What keeps that balance in place is a combination of two things. On the government side, to keep power in check, it must be subdivided. Things must be structured to prevent perfectly coordinated action, which would make abuse of power too easy. This is why we have separation of powers and traditional checks and balances. On the societal side, in contrast, adequate power depends on factors that support coordinated action – the news media, the activities of civil society, a free marketplace of ideas, free and fair elections, and so forth. 

All of this means that democracies face danger when (1) the checks and balances within government erode, and (2) when the ability of society to engage in collective action is diminished. 

If we are not careful, AI will threaten to do both of those things. My book unpacks this in a number of ways but let me give just two examples. On the government side, AI might over-empower the executive branch relative to legislative and judicial branches, if AI is used to automate perfect obedience to central executive authority. On the society side, the ability of citizens to act in concert could be undermined by AI-enhanced surveillance or propaganda. Society’s power decreases, government power increases, and the balance required for democracy is lost.

Again, these are risks, not inevitabilities. If we act wisely, AI could enhance society’s capacity for collective action, and keep government’s power in balance, through exactly the means I mentioned earlier. But that won’t happen without strategic and proactive interventions. 

Analyze how the propagation of AI fuels authoritarianism in China and the United States.

The situation in China stands as a warning of what is possible. China’s use of AI to monitor and control its people has been detailed in excellent books like Josh........

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