Central Asia’s Studied Silence on Iran’s Turmoil |
Iran’s mass protests, which erupted in late December following the collapse of the rial to 1.42 million against the dollar, have spread to all 31 provinces and left at least 599 dead, according to recent reports. The demonstrations, initially sparked by economic grievances including food prices that surged 72 percent year-over-year, have evolved into broader calls for regime change, with many protesters chanting monarchist slogans and demanding the return of exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. The government has responded with internet blackouts, mass arrests exceeding 10,000, and deadly force – a crackdown that rights groups warn echoes the brutality of previous repressions.
Yet the governments of nearby Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have maintained near-total silence on the unrest. No official statements have addressed the protests directly. This muted response contrasts sharply with the region’s usual diplomatic posture and reflects a careful hedging strategy shaped by multiple pressures.
Economic concerns dominate. Kazakhstan’s exposure to oil price volatility makes Tehran’s potential response particularly worrying. Kazakh financial analyst Rasul Rysmambetov warned that Iran could add 500,000 barrels per day within six months to fund social spending, potentially collapsing global oil prices.
“If........