10 Years After the Arbitration Ruling, Might Makes Right in the South China Sea |
Flashpoints | Security | East Asia
10 Years After the Arbitration Ruling, Might Makes Right in the South China Sea
Beijing will disregard international law when in its own interest, forcing other countries to make difficult decisions about their own compliance.
In this photo issued by the Philippine Coast Guard, a China Coast Guard vessel fires a water cannon at a Philippines supply ship in the vicinity of Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, Dec. 10, 2023.
In July 2016, an arbitral tribunal assembled under the Annex VII of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) issued a significant ruling that favored the Philippines over China. The tribunal determined that maritime boundaries must be defined by UNCLOS, not by historic claims like those used by China to support its nine-dash line.
The tribunal further decided that China’s artificially constructed “islands” are not actual islands and do not justify an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Additionally, it found that China failed to protect the marine environment.
Part of the ruling process revolved around the tribunal’s observations that China had repeatedly violated the Philippines maritime sovereignty, and that Chinese maritime law enforcement not only endangered Philippines assets, but also violated multiple rules of the Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea. The ruling also found that China had aggravated the disputes throughout the course of arbitral proceedings.
A decade later, China has shown precious little regard for the ruling and has only further entrenched precedent of highly selective adherence to international law.
Despite the ruling declaring the nine-dash line invalid, China continues to include the nine-dash line on maps of the region, and continues to ignore UNCLOS – a binding multilateral treaty framework which China voluntarily belongs to. For example, the tribunal ruled that China had illegally prevented Filipino fishermen from fishing at the Scarborough Shoal. Yet as recently as April 10, multiple Chinese vessels used floating barriers to block the entrance to the Scarborough Shoal, thus denying entry to Filipino fishing vessels.
Between 2013 and the present day, China has created 3,200 acres’ worth of artificial islands in the Spratlys. The island-building initiative shows no signs of stopping: China began creating a new artificial island along the Antelope Reef near Vietnam, working at breakneck speed amidst global attention spans’ diversion to the conflict in Iran.
Meanwhile, since legal proceedings began under UNCLOS in 2013, Malaysia has reported no fewer than 270 incidents of China Coast Guard and Maritime Militia harassing or assaulting ASEAN member states’ vessels. One such incident took place in December 2025, when five China Coast Guard and several Maritime Militia vessels harassed 20 Filipino fishing boats at the Escoda Shoal, damaging two of the fishing ships and injuring three Filipino fishermen.
This disregard for a U.N. convention signed by........