The Pulse | Diplomacy | South Asia

Nepal’s Tibet Conference Controversy Is About More Than Chinese Pressure

The cancellation of the in-person event also reflects Nepal’s lack of confidence in its ability to manage politically sensitive events.

Buddhist mantras carved and painted on stones on the trail to Khumbu Nepal.

The cancellation of the in-person 17th Seminar of the International Association for Tibetan Studies (IATS), scheduled for Kathmandu from August 23-29, is being portrayed in Nepal and abroad as the country caving in to China’s undue pressure.

That is not wrong — but it is an incomplete analysis. The cancellation also reflects the Nepal government’s troubled ties with Beijing, inadequate diplomatic outreach, and, just as importantly, the Nepali state’s lack of confidence in its ability to manage politically sensitive events.

The government of Balendra Shah, Nepal’s current prime minister and senior leader of the ruling Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), got off on the wrong foot with China.

The September 2025 Gen Z uprising, which overthrew the K.P. Sharma Oli government and cleared the way for the RSP’s rise to power, saw the participation of some youths wearing clothes with the insignia of “TOB.” According to a popular narrative, the acronym stood for “Tibetan Original Bloodline.” Its members supposedly wanted to “hijack” the movement for the “Free Tibet” cause. Though there was no hard evidence to establish this link, the narrative gained traction in pro-Beijing circles. So did the related speculation that the Gen Z protests were the handiwork of Western spy agencies.

Then there is Sudan Gurung. The current Nepali home minister has been persistently linked to the Free Tibet movement and the alleged TOB protestors.

There were still other reasons for China to doubt the Shah government’s adherence to the “One China” policy.

In a rare move, the Dalai Lama had congratulated the erstwhile government of Sushila Karki, the ex-chief justice who had been picked by Shah to lead the interim government formed after the Gen Z uprising. Then, when Shah became the prime minister after the March 2026 elections, the head of the Tibetan government-in-exile officially extended his good wishes. In both these instances, the Nepali side did not respond to the congratulatory messages, yet Beijing certainly took note.

More recently, four months into the Shah government’s tenure, many Western diplomats openly attended the Dalai Lama’s birthday celebrations in Kathmandu, which China again interpreted as a sign of Nepal’s lack of commitment to “One China.”

Amid these developments, Shah refused to meet Chinese officials, as part of his broader policy of refraining from holding one-on-one meetings with foreign officials.........

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