Myanmar’s Military Prepares to Enact Its Election Plan |
When Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing first seized power from Myanmar’s civilian government in February 2021, he promised to hold new elections. Nearly five years later, after a massive civil war that has left tens of thousands dead and millions displaced, he’s finally following through on that pledge.
Nobody expects the election to be free or fair. After all, the hugely popular National League for Democracy (NLD) party is banned from competing, after winning the previous two elections in massive landslides.
So why is the election happening now, and why did it take so long?
There are many reasons why the timing is finally right for Min Aung Hlaing to follow through on his pledge. China, the regime’s main backer, is pushing for the elections and the commander-in-chief has run out of room to defy Beijing. Thanks to China’s help, the military is also in a much more dominant position today than it was two or three years ago, and Min Aung Hlaing himself is therefore in a safer place politically. Meanwhile, opposition forces are either on the backfoot, divided, or losing relevance.
This time last year, the military regime looked like it could be in terminal decline. In late 2023, a trio of powerful ethnic armed groups known collectively as the Three Brotherhood Alliance entered the conflict in spectacular fashion, inspiring renewed offensives by rebel groups around the country.
For the next year, major towns and military installations fell like dominoes. Extraordinary images were plastered across social media, showing massive weapons seizures, including tanks and multiple launch rocket systems. Hundreds of bedraggled regime soldiers were being captured after barely putting up a fight.
What had once been a pipe dream was beginning to become popular consensus: the military dictatorship appeared on the verge of total defeat.
But China intervened to an unprecedented degree to prevent its collapse, fearing the broader pro-democracy movement was too close to the West. Beijing heaped pressure on the Brotherhood groups on its border – the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) – to sign a ceasefire with the military and cut ties with pro-democracy armed groups. This pressure included the closing of border crossings that the armed groups depend on for military supplies and the general economy, and the return of key towns and territories to junta control.
Owing its continued survival to China, the junta is itself under more pressure than ever to satisfy Beijing’s political demands – which include holding an election. Still, if he believed the election posed a genuine........