China Power | Diplomacy | East Asia

Latin America’s China Dilemma: Lessons From Peru and Colombia’s Presidential Elections 

Pro-American candidates are winning elections, but deep economic ties with China will continue to constrain any significant strategic realignment.

The inauguration of Keiko Fujimori as president of Peru, July 28, 2026.

The recent results of Latin America’s electoral super-cycle (2025–2026) suggest that China has become an increasingly important feature of regional politics. While Beijing’s overall popularity in the region is at an all-time high, Latin Americans are voting in candidates who position themselves as U.S.-aligned and, at times, China skeptics. 

The ideological pendulum seems to be swinging to the right, and with it, the region’s place in the broader China-U.S. geostrategic competition is shifting. Even Peru and Colombia, where China policy did not initially appear likely to become a decisive electoral fault line, have elected candidates who are expected to distance their governments from Beijing, at least rhetorically, and move closer to Washington. But in both countries, deep economic ties with China will continue to constrain any significant strategic realignment.

Once in office, then, many of these governments fail to live up to Washington’s expectations. Rather than distancing themselves from Beijing or limiting Chinese investment, they more often adopt a more pragmatic approach in their relations with China while shifting their diplomatic rhetoric closer to the United States. 

Honduran President Nasry Asfura campaigned on re-establishing diplomatic relations with Taiwan and severing ties with Beijing. Nearly a year into his presidency, however, no such shift has occurred. 

Chilean President José Antonio Kast, who was seen at the U.S.-backed Shield of the Americas Summit while still president-elect, did cancel a controversial Chinese submarine cable project. Still, the broader relationship with China has remained rather stable, with Foreign Minister Francisco Pérez Mackenna making a visit to China in August.

Even the sale of Chilean copper – a critical mineral of strategic concern for Washington – to Chinese importers is at its highest level in nine months. 

How will these trends play out in Peru and Colombia, which installed new presidents in July and August, respectively?

In Peru, the election of right-wing politician Keiko Fujimori to the office of president appears on the surface to be the ideal outcome for Washington. Over the last decade, Peru has been plagued by political instability, with China playing a role in the most recent constitutional crisis. These dynamics suggest that the new administration in Lima would favor closer ties with the U.S. and distance itself from China. 

Although Washington will certainly have leverage with the new administration, it remains uncertain whether Fujimori will take a hard line against Beijing. There are two factors that make this unlikely: Fujimori’s political background and Peru’s deep economic ties with China. 

Keiko Fujimori is the daughter of the late Alberto Fujimori, a former Peruvian president turned authoritarian ruler, whose constitutional reforms and self-coup are considered by many as the source of the continued political instability that Peru has suffered for most of the 21st century. Alberto Fujimori fundamentally reoriented Peru toward Asian markets during the 1990s, laying the foundations for today’s economic relationship with China. 

Keiko Fujimori was elected on a platform built under her father’s controversial and authoritarian legacy, one that coupled gross human rights violations with economic growth. Some experts suggest that she will continue her father’s legacy on the China question by adopting a pragmatic approach of political alignment with Washington and economic engagement with Beijing. 

After all, China remains Peru’s largest trading partner and a major investor across strategic sectors, including mining, energy and infrastructure. For its part, Beijing sees in Lima a strategic anchor, particularly considering Chinese state-owned shipping company COSCO’s investment in the Chancay Port. 

The reversal of a Peruvian court ruling that initially curbed state oversight over Chancay port showcases that Lima’s China policy is at a crossroads. Whether Peru would follow Panama’s path and take back the Chancay port or adopt a more equidistant approach to both superpowers will depend on decisions made by Fujimori – and, most importantly, on Peru’s Constitutional Tribunal upcoming ruling on oversight rights over the port. 

In Colombia, Abelardo de la Espriella’s presidential victory brought another rightward shift in the region’s electoral politics. De la Espriella has pledged to prioritize relations with democratic states within the Western hemisphere, vowing to sever diplomatic ties with both Nicaragua and Cuba and saying that his........

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