JD FOSTER: A Fragile Ceasefire Carries Huge Hopes |
JD FOSTER: A Fragile Ceasefire Carries Huge Hopes
(Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
The Iran war ceasefire is as fragile as a spring snowflake. Circumstances may have changed substantially by the time you read this. Yet some observations will likely survive.
Most immediately, everything is conditional. Asking what happens next can only receive a response of, “It depends.”
For example, Hezbollah, one of Iran’s wilting proxies, attacked Israel. Israel is responding. How does Iran respond to Israel’s response? The war –and the ceasefire — has been between the Iranians on one side and the United States plus Israel on the other.
In Iran’s view, does fighting between Israel and Hezbollah violate the ceasefire enough to cancel it?
All sides need the ceasefire to hold. From President Donald Trump’s perspective, he saw an Iran bent on someday threatening the United States with nuclear-tipped long-range ballistic missiles. Would that someday come soon or next year or the year after? Whatever the answer, the result would be intolerable.
Iran was already badly weakened, so circumstances were ripe for decisive action, and Trump took it. From the start of the war to Monday’s ceasefire, American forces blew up everything worth destroying. Airfields. Missile storage sites. The Iranian Navy. Anything associated with Iran’s nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs. Anything relevant to Iran’s........