Across the West, Iranian exiles have portrayed an opposition movement eager to embrace Israel and overthrow the Islamic Republic. Inside Iran, however, the reality is much more complicated.

Following the strikes on Tehran in the summer of 2025, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s regime came under heavy pressure. During this Twelve-Day War, the pro-monarchy faction of the West was confident that success was within their grasp. Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi declared a historic “Berlin Wall moment,” predicting that the Iranian public would rise up, overthrow the regime, and clear a pathway for the restoration of the Peacock Throne.

The Pahlavi dynasty ruled Iran from 1925 until the 1979 Islamic Revolution, when Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was overthrown and fled the country. His son, Reza Pahlavi, the crown prince at the time, has since become the most prominent figure associated with the exiled monarchist opposition. His supporters advocate for a secular, democratic Iran and argue that the monarchy remains a viable alternative to the Islamic Republic.

Nonetheless, one year later, Israel is once again engaged in a war, albeit with more active American involvement. But the “Berlin Wall” still stands. Mojtaba Khamenei now holds power after his father, Ali Khamenei, was assassinated in February.

Inevitably, the U.S.-Israel alliance faces a grim reality: trusting the monarchist rhetoric from Iranians in the West was a blunder. Even with U.S. assistance, Israel could not turn military pressure into the political collapse........

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