Among the first world leaders to speak with Donald Trump following his election victory on Nov. 5, 2024 was Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Congratulating the U.S. president-elect, Zelenskyy expressed confidence in the “potential for stronger cooperation” between the two nations.
Others are less sure. For many foreign policy observers, Trump’s victory – together with his lukewarm attitude toward NATO, criticism of the amount of U.S. aid being sent to Ukraine and vows to reach a deal to end the ongoing war in Eastern Europe – has stoked uncertainty over Washington’s commitment to doing everything it can to support Ukraine repel Russian invaders.
As a scholar on Eastern Europe, I understand where these concerns come from. But I also offer a counter view: that a Trump White House may not necessarily be bad news for Kyiv.
It is common to hear Trump described as isolationist, nationalistic and an anti-interventionist on the world stage. He has encouraged such a view through claims, for example, that the U.S. would shirk its responsibility to come to the defense of a NATO member against a Russian attack if that country was not meeting its defense spending targets in line with the alliance’s commitments.
But such rhetoric is undercut by established facts and prior Republican positions.
In December 2023, the U.S. Congress passed bipartisan legislation prohibiting a president from unilaterally withdrawing the U.S. from NATO, maintaining the overarching security and stability of Europe is in the U.S.’s interests. The........