Cyclone Narelle: ‘compact’, dangerous and unusually predictable |
Tropical Cyclone Narelle is currently a very dangerous Category 5 storm, sitting off the Far North Queensland Coast some 350 kilometres northeast of Cooktown. Formed in the Coral Sea, Narelle is packing a punch, with sustained winds near the centre of 205km per hour and wind gusts to 285km per hour.
Sea surface temperatures in the northwest Coral Sea are currently 0.5–1.0°C above average, and this has fuelled the storm’s rapid intensification.
The cyclone’s centre is barrelling towards Cape York at a rapid 26km per hour, and predicted to cross the coast between the Aboriginal community of Lockhart River and Cape Melville on Friday morning. It is expected to weaken a little before it hits land and arrive as a still-dangerous Category 4 cyclone. The small inland town of Coen is also in its path.
The intensity and path of cyclones that form in the Coral Sea are usually difficult to predict. This is because they are pushed in different directions by highly changeable winds, unlike cyclones in most other tropical ocean basins.
Yet Cyclone Narelle has followed a predictable westward path, which makes this cyclone highly unusual.
The Bureau of Meterology warns that tides in Princess Charlotte Bay, at the base of the narrow part of Cape York Peninsula, are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with dangerous ocean flooding. Any coastal residents in this area are warned of a possible dangerous storm tide as the cyclone........