When the EU’s heads of state and government come together in Brussels for their final European Council meeting of the year on December 14 and 15, their agenda is likely to be dominated by the war in Ukraine.
As you’d expect, the war has an agenda item of its own – but it is also central to discussions on enlargement, the budget and European defence. Decisions made at this meeting will have far-reaching implications – not only for Ukraine but also for the EU.
The EU has to balance its internal cohesion with its foreign and security policies, including preserving its appetite and capacity for further enlargement. This presents Brussels and member states with some important challenges.
First, Hungary’s prime minister, Victor Orbán, has been very clear that he does not support continued EU funding of Ukraine’s war effort. This is partly a gambit by Orbán to unlock approximately €22 billion (£19 billion) of EU aid to Hungary frozen because of concerns over judicial independence, academic freedom and LGBTQ rights in Hungary.
Another issue concerns the situation of Ukraine’s Hungarian minority, which Orbán claims has been neglected and discriminated against by Kyiv.
There appears to be some progress on unfreezing EU aid to Hungary, with the European Commission approving an initial payout of about €900 million in November. And, in terms of minority rights, a bill addressing this issue was signed into law on December 8 as part of a tranche of legislation designed to ease Ukraine’s entry to the EU.
But........