The war in Ukraine is at a critical juncture. Kyiv has been given permission to use western-supplied Atacms and Storm Shadow missiles against targets inside Russia. It did so as soon as that permission was granted, with strikes against Russian military facilities in the Bryansk and Kursk regions.

Moscow’s response to the strikes has been twofold. First, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, approved changes to his country’s nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. It also launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile – Oreshnik, or Hazel Tree – at an arms factory in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro.

This – so far carefully calibrated and choreographed – tit-for-tat indicates a further, gradual escalation of the war effort by both sides. It has been accompanied by a steady advance of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine and a continuation of the Kremlin’s efforts to cause maximum damage to Ukraine’s critical infrastructure.

Both sides are acting in anticipation of Donald Trump’s inauguration in January, Trump has repeatedly committed himself to ending the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s European allies are struggling to maintain their unified front of support in anticipation of a US withdrawal of aid under the incoming Trump administration, as well as scepticism from the likes of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán.

The war has taken a huge toll on Ukraine. Six million people fled the country and an additional four million people are internally displaced. The country is experiencing increasing levels of........

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