Five reasons Trump’s plan for Ukrainian elections and a peace referendum will only prolong the war |
In a surprise announcement on February 10, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said that his administration was preparing to hold presidential elections before the middle of May. Alongside these elections, he is reported to be planning to hold a referendum on a peace deal with Russia.
This is a dramatic shift in Zelensky’s stance: the president has long resisted elections under conditions of war, despite the fact his mandate ran out in 2024. One possible explanation for the turnaround is that US pressure on Ukraine is having some real effects. A few days ago, Zelensky indicated as much, saying that his US counterpart, Donald Trump, was pushing for a negotiated end to the war by June.
Trump’s timeline – probably with an eye towards the US mid-term elections, when the White House would like to present a Ukraine deal as another major foreign policy success – is one thing. The feasibility of elections and, even more so, a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is quite another.
The first problem is logistics. Who will be eligible to vote? Where and who could monitor the elections to ensure they are free and fair? Apart from the hundreds of thousands serving in the trenches defending Ukraine against Russia’s aggression, there are also 3.7 million internally displaced Ukrainians and almost 6 million refugees abroad – plus approximately 5 million Ukrainians currently living under Russian occupation.
There is also the uncertainty of a Russian ceasefire – needed to facilitate not only the conduct of the elections but the preceding election campaign – and the near certainty of large-scale Russian election interference.
We can expect something similar........