Venezuela’s civil-military alliance is being stretched — if it breaks, numerous armed groups may be drawn into messy split |
The immediate political void left in Venezuela by Nicolás Maduro’s abrupt removal from power has been filled by the former vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, who was sworn in as interim president on Jan. 5, 2026.
But the situation is far from stable. Rodríguez represents just one of multiple and competing interests within a Venezuela elite composed of a precarious civil-military alliance officially committed to a leftist populist ideology called Chavismo.
Delcy and her brother Jorge Rodríguez, the longtime right-hand man of Maduro, are the leading faces of the civilian factions. Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López, both members of the armed forces, represent its military interests.
Even this rough civilian-military split represents just the institutional dimensions of power in Venezuela. There are also numerous armed groups and organizations with distinct interests that will respond differently to what happens in the coming days and weeks.
As scholars who have spent decades researching these armed groups, we know that Chavista leadership now faces a stark dilemma: Does it acquiesce to U.S. pressure and coercion over domestic economic and policy decisions or does it resist? Both paths risk armed conflict of varying severity, with wide-ranging consequences for the country’s future stability.
Below, we identify the main armed actors and examine how they may respond to choices made by Chavismo’s leadership in response to Trump’s use of force.
If current elite cohesion holds and Chavista leadership acquiesces to Trump’s designs on the country, in our opinion the likelihood of large-scale armed conflict remains low.
Over the years, the government has consolidated loyalty by installing officers at the helm of state institutions and granting access to resources such as oil, gold mining and drugs. Future government cohesion would be contingent on the military’s continued control of key institutions, as well as the legal and illicit markets that underpin senior officers’ wealth.
But the risk of instability also lies outside of elite unity, with the armed “colectivos.” These diverse groups range from loyal government supporters to factions more critical of the government. Although their numbers are unknown, colectivos are numerous, coordinated, often heavily armed and control significant territory – including in the country’s capital.
While many are now driven primarily by economic interests, a subset