Australia’s population is projected to reach 39.3 million in 2065-66 but its rate of growth will have slowed, according to the Intergenerational Report (IGR) released Monday.

The projected number in 40 years’ time compares with a current population of about 27.9 million.

The IGR projects population growth slowing from an average of 1.4% a year over the last 40 years to 0.9% a year over the coming four decades. This is 0.2 percentage points lower growth compared with the projection period of the last report, issued in 2023.

In 2062–63 the projected population would be 1.8 million lower than projected in the 2023 IGR.

In a Monday speech launching the report, Treasurer Jim Chalmers will say that by the mid 2060s: “People live longer, healthier lives, families have fewer kids, and that will make the population grow more slowly, to less than 40 million in forty years”.

He elaboprated on News24 on Sunday:“We do acknowledge in the IGR that we expect fertility rates to fall further and faster than we anticipated even three years ago. That’s actually one of the biggest influences over the next 40 years or so. Almost half the decline in fertility rates is actually because fewer people are having three or more kids. And what that reflects is mums having fewer kids later in life. That’s what’s playing out in the fertility rates.”

Population level projection across intergenertational reports

Chalmers says in his speech the report’s projections also show living standards will have risen and people will retire with much larger superannuation accounts than they do now.

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