Tensions are running high in the Middle East. The murderous attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7 2023 kicked off a spiral of violence in the region. That has culminated, a year later, in Israel mounting a ground invasion of Lebanon. The invasion, which Israel says aims to confront and destroy Hezbollah, follows 12 months of tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Iran, which have gradually escalated in intensity.

Given that Hezbollah is closely associated and supported by Iran, there is mounting concern that this conflict could become a major flashpoint in international relations. The worry is that this war might provide the spark that causes the next global conflict.

To understand how dangerous the situation could be, it’s worth looking at the theory of conflict escalation. In 1997, Austrian economist Friedrich Glasl published his nine-stage model of conflict escalation, which is generally accepted as the most sophisticated study of how conflicts can develop from disputes to all-out conflict (a step he gives the rather ominous name of “Together into the abyss”).

The first level is when a conflict is readily or easily resolved, but when a resolution is not achieved, positions on either side of the argument harden and frustration begin to mount. The next step naturally occurs when conflict parties seek to make their case, hoping to gain advantage in the court of global opinion.

Stage three of the model sees the adversaries beginning to take action. Neither side wants to yield advantage to the other, while any sense that discussion might........

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