Since 2025, the radical-right One Nation party has experienced a polling surge – regularly polling ahead of the Coalition.

In the midst of this surge, and wider voter fragmentation, the Coalition is facing a by-election contest in the rural NSW electorate of Farrer on May 9.

Farrer is centred around the regional city of Albury and surrounding agricultural areas. This by-election was caused by the resignation of former Liberal Leader Sussan Ley from parliament.

A decision by the Liberals and Nationals to direct preferences to One Nation could prove decisive – and deliver the seat to the One Nation candidate, David Farley.

Wait, remind me how preferences work?

Australian elections have voters order each candidate on their House of Representatives ballot paper according to their preferences.

Preference deals are commonly made between political parties at elections.

However, it is important to note parties do not have actual control over where voter preferences go.

Instead, a “preference deal” merely refers to the recommendations they publish on digital and physical how-to-vote cards, which voters are not bound to follow.

Read more: Explainer: what are preference deals and how do they work?

The 2025 federal election continued a long-term downward trend in first-preference votes for the major parties.

More recently, strong flows of........

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