It would have been interesting to have been a fly on the wall in Volodymyr Zelensky’s office on the morning of November 6 when it became clear that Donald Trump had won the US election. You can’t imagine it would have been an upbeat gathering. A lot will hang on how the 47th US president approaches his foreign policy, and Trump made plenty of noise during the campaign about how he would bring the conflict to an end and force the two sides to sit down and talk “within 24 hours” of taking office. But the devil will be in the detail when it comes to forging a peace deal.
You’d have to imagine that Zelensky and his inner circle would have gamed a Trump victory, just as they would have worked out a plan to keep a Harris administration four-square behind their war effort. It has become clear in recent weeks that Russia now has the upper hand on the battlefield. And without vast new supplies of military aid and a free hand to use that aid effectively, most analysts believe Ukraine is likely to lose. Or at least be vulnerable to pressure to sign up to a peace deal that means giving up a great deal of territory as well as the freedom to make independent decisions about its security.
The Kremlin has wasted little time in ratcheting up the pressure, saying it won’t even consider peace talks until all western aid to Ukraine is halted. Trump, for his part, has reportedly signalled his intention to start peace talks before he is even sworn in. A peace plan being reportedly considered by Trump and his advisers would include an 800-mile buffer zone policed by troops from Europe and the UK as well as a commitment from UKraine not to join Nato for at least two decades.
It’s very much an “America first” plan, writes Robert Dover, an intelligence and national security expert at the University of Hull. For those who believe, as Trump does, that the US bears too much of the financial burden for Nato, particularly in Europe, it has the bonus that Nato’s European members would bar much of the cost of any peace deal.
Zelensky, meanwhile, is offering to contribute Ukrainian troops to help in the defence of Europe, perhaps to replace US troops now stationed there. He has also pledged to open up some of Ukraine’s considerable natural resources to the US and other allies. Dover believes Zelensky is being........