With the clock ticking down to November 5 and what just about everyone agrees is the most consequential US presidential election in living memory, various of the Biden administration’s top brass have jetted out to the Middle East for one last try to get a deal over the line.
The most likely area where progress could be made is the conflict in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah. The militant group announced the appointment of a new general secretary on October 29. Naim Qassem is, as the BBC puts it, “one of the few senior Hezbollah leaders who remains alive after Israel killed most of the group’s leadership in a series of attacks”. He is reportedly making noises about possible change in Hezbollah policy that would separate any negotiations over the conflict in Lebanon with any talks over Gaza.
If true, it’s a major shift from the policy of recently assassinated leader Hassan Nasrallah, which previously indelibly linked a ceasefire in Gaza with the cessation of Lebanon’s rocket attacks on northern Israel. Full details of the deal remain under wraps, but a draft was leaked to Israel’s state broadcaster Kan.
For Israel’s part, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the initial phase of Israel’s operation inside Lebanon is drawing to a close. As for what comes next, the New York Times reported on October 28 that Netanyahu is “waiting to see who will succeed President Biden before committing to a diplomatic trajectory”.
The diplomatic trajectory has been made more complicated of late by a big spat between Israel and the UN. The two have had a fractious relationship since the very start. But under the Netanyahu government, things have steadily deteriorated to the stage that Israel actually barred UN secretary general António Guterres from entering the country at the beginning of October.
This week Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, passed a new law banning the UN relief and works agency (Unrwa) from operating on any territory it controls. Unrwa was set up after the war of 1948 to help displaced Arabs and has since morphed into what an independent review this........