The latest reports emerging from the frontlines in Ukraine are that the artillery ammunition the defending troops have been waiting for all these months is finally beginning to filter through to them. But it’s not enough, says the authoritative US thinktank, the Institute for the Study of War. The ISW quotes Ukrainian army sources in defensive positions north of the city of Kharkiv, which has been facing a concerted Russian offensive since May 9, that attacking troops enjoy a five-to-one artillery advantage.
This close to Ukraine’s border with Russia (some of Ukraine’s defensive positions are no more than 12km to 15km inside Ukraine), it is relatively easy for Russian military units to reequip and rotate in and out of Russia. The region close to Russia’s border with Ukraine has hitherto been a sanctuary for the attacking army, mainly because western weapons came with the proviso attached that they mustn’t be used to attack targets across the border inside Russia itself.
The rationale for western reluctance to allow its munitions to be used against Russia itself is quite simple. The fear that this would escalate into a confrontation between Russia and Nato. Pretty much every western declaration of support for Kyiv has been met by threats from Vladimir Putin or one of his proxies, often referring to Russia’s nuclear capability. Western leaders have been unwilling to call Putin’s bluff, understandably.
But the urgency of the situation appears to have focused minds in Europe and the US in recent weeks. First, the UK and France relaxed their restrictions. The UK’s foreign minister, David Cameron, told Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, on a recent trip to Kyiv that Ukraine should “absolutely has the right to strike back at Russia”. On May 28, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, and the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, gave a press conference at Brandenburg in Germany where Macron agreed they wanted to allow Ukraine to “neutralise the military sites from which the missiles are fired and, basically, the military sites........