The United States has launched new airstrikes across Iran this week as President Donald Trump, losing patience over the protracted negotiations to end the war, has leaned into violence to ratchet up the pressure on the Iranian leadership.

The US secretary of defence, Pete Hegseth, made clear the airstrikes would likely continue if the peace deal continued to stall, saying:

If we need to negotiate with bombs, we’ll negotiate with bombs.

If we need to negotiate with bombs, we’ll negotiate with bombs.

This came after Iran and Israel fired missiles at one another in recent days and Iran shot down a US helicopter.

Up to this point, both the US and the Iranian regime had respected the precarious ceasefire that had halted the war in early April. Both sides seemed to want it to continue. And Trump is still insisting a peace deal is imminent.

Why, then, are both sides firing on each other now, and where does this leave the negotiations? There are a few plausible explanations.

Escalate to deescalate

In conflicts, states often escalate to deescalate. This is when a country ramps up military action with the aim of intimidating the other side into submission.

Both the US and Iran want to show force to pressure the other side into accepting an agreement that meets their own core interests.

However, the two sides remain at an impasse because their most critical interests are at odds with one another.

The US wants Iran to capitulate on its nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, with no constraints. Iran........

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