Why Québec separatism is unlikely despite the Parti Québecois election win |
Québec’s flagship sovereignist party, the Parti Québecois (PQ), formed a minority government in the recent provincial election. The party essentially rose from the dead after a 12-year absence, dethroning the right-wing nationalist — but not separatist — Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ).
For Canadians, the PQ is typically associated with sovereignty referendums. Yet, despite the PQ victory, estimates place Québecois support for sovereignty at between 27 and 31 per cent, a far cry from the 49.42 per cent who voted to separate in the 1995 referendum.
This figure aligns somewhat with the popular vote received by the PQ, which, at 28 per cent, is the lowest popular vote share of a sitting government in the history of the province.
The PQ’s victory therefore should be understood in light of three factors: low public support for the PQ and for separatism, Indigenous resistance to Québec independence and a global context where statehood doesn’t necessarily shield against interference or expand diplomatic leverage.
Lukewarm mood on independence
The combination of Québec’s multi-party system and its “first-past-the-post” electoral system means governments are often formed on less than a majority of the popular vote.
In six elections between 2007–2022, an average of 53.9 per cent of votes failed to translate into seats, according to electoral expert Mercédez Roberge.
This explains how the separatist PQ was able to form government despite the measured lack of enthusiasm for separatism in the province.
In fact, even leaving room for the possibility that leftist Québec Solidaire supporters also support independence (though the party does not necessarily prioritize it), a combination of the popular votes earned by parties that explicitly do not support independence suggests that 58.24........