Protests in Iran: ‘Whatever happens, the situation will be explosive’ |
Iran has been rocked by unprecedented unrest since late December. Protesters from all regions and social classes have taken to the streets to denounce the economic crisis and political repression, defying the regime’s blockade of internet and telecommunications.
The country is in the throes of a deep economic crisis: currency devaluation, rampant inflation and growing inequalities are fuelling anger. Iranians are denouncing a regime that demands constant sacrifices but is unable to meet their needs.
The government has responded to this massive mobilization with violent repression. According to the latest estimates by human rights NGOs, the death toll from the crackdown has stood at more than 2,000 since the uprising began in late December, the vast majority of whom were protesters. More than 10,000 arrests have been reported across the country. However, the Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights (IHR) estimates that the actual number of victims could be much higher.
In this context, United States President Donald Trump has threatened to “hit very hard” if the situation escalates, reigniting concerns about possible American intervention in the region.
To analyze these events, we interviewed Laval University professor Francesco Cavatorta, a specialist in the Middle East. He explains the causes of the movement, the regime’s strategies and the geopolitical issues at stake.
The Conversation Canada: What are the root causes of the current protest movement in Iran and how does it differ from recent uprisings in 2019 and 2022?
Francesco Cavatorta: The current movement is the latest episode in a long series of mobilizations in Iran, dating back to at........