“It’s the economy, stupid” was how James Carville, Bill Clinton’s strategist, famously summed up what he thought would be the central issue in the 1992 American presidential election.

Following two devastating byelection losses in previously rock-solid Liberal ridings in Montréal this week and Toronto earlier this summer, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his team seemingly still want to believe, like Carville did, that the economy will be the central issue in the next federal election rather than something much deeper.

They argue their unpopularity — trailing 15-20 points in opinion polls behind the Conservatives for a year now — has much to do with the cost-of-living challenges Canadians face and public perceptions that the economy is a mess.

This analysis is not without merit. Some polls indicate as many as 80 per cent of Canadians think the Canadian economy is in recession even though it isn’t. The price of everything from housing to milk to gasoline seems to have Canadians craving change.

To be sure, unemployment is at 6.6 per cent and rising. But it’s low compared to the jobless rate during the pandemic or in the 1990s. Inflation also fell to........

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