The United States under Donald Trump appears heading toward a “third defeat,” which originated from his attempt to divert attention away from his two previous losses, French anthropologist and historian Emmanuel Todd says.

In a recent interview in Tokyo, Todd said the reckless behavior of the United States, including attacks against Venezuela and Iran, underscores the madness of an “empire” that is reminiscent of Nazism.

He also warned of the dangers of Japan falling into “imaginary nationalism” concerning its relations with China.

Excerpts from the interview follow:

Question: What are the effects on the world of the attack by Israel and the United States on Iran?

Todd: As a historian, I want to start from a bigger picture. This war in Iran follows two major defeats already experienced by the United States.

The first defeat is, as I told you in our interview in February 2025, the virtual defeat of the United States against Russia in Ukraine.

The United States, with its declining manufacturing base, turned out to be unable to provide the Ukrainians with sufficient weapons and munitions, revealing the fact that the American industrial system cannot sustain a major war.

The second defeat, which became apparent afterwards, is even more important: the defeat against China.

U.S. President Donald Trump threatened China with tariffs, but when the Chinese threatened the United States back with an embargo on rare earths, he very quickly had to back down.

Therefore, you can understand that everything he does now is a diversion to make us—and himself—forget about these major defeats.

Q: During your last visit to Japan last autumn when you took part in the Asahi World Forum, you indicated the possibility of a U.S. attack on Venezuela. Well, that has now happened, and the U.S. has shifted its focus of attack to the Middle East. What are your thoughts?

A: Yes. The attack on Iran by Israel and the United States started in the same way. But since Iran didn’t collapse, things got out of hand, and it might turn out to be the third major defeat for the United States.

Q: Where will the U.S. attack on Iran lead the world?

A: The root cause of this war is, as I also mentioned in February 2025, the disintegration of American........

© The Asahi Shimbun