We use cookies to provide some features and experiences in QOSHE

More information  .  Close
Aa Aa Aa
- A +

Why we're pressing pause on political polling at the Herald and the Age

3 31 0
23.05.2019

In the wash-up from last Saturday’s federal election questions are rightly being asked about how all the major public polling companies failed to predict the Morrison government’s victory.

The Herald/Age’s pollster Ipsos consistently predicted a Labor win – with the final poll published last Friday showing a national two party vote of 51-49 in favour of Labor.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison on election night.Credit:James Brickwood

Ipsos’s biggest competitor Newspoll also consistently called it for Labor, with its final poll carrying a greater margin of 51.5-48.5.

In Ipsos’s defence, the company had long been ringing alarm bells for Bill Shorten by predicting a worryingly low primary vote - the final poll had Labor gaining just 33 per cent of first preferences. These warnings were criticised by rival media outlets or, in the case of the Labor campaign team, ignored. As of Thursday afternoon the AEC count has the Labor primary vote from Saturday at 33.72 per cent.

But Ipsos can’t walk away from the fact its overall polling forecast the wrong result. Moreover, polling companies are the........

© The Age