The undeclared proxy war between Iran and Israel is out in the open. As Israel has expanded its military aims from full-scale offensive military operations to degrade Hamas in Gaza, through defensive and then offensive air and ground operations in Lebanon, we have now arrived at what was previously considered the worst-case scenario – acknowledged direct attacks between Israel and Iran on each other’s territory.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran on Sunday.Credit: AP
This was previously the red line that neither side would cross because of fears it would lead to a broader regional conflict. But the regional security landscape is much different to that of a year ago. Iran’s system of a layered defence has relied on friends, allies and proxies on Israel’s border or within striking distance of it, who could be used to increase the cost to Israel of any attack against Iran.
Now, however, Hamas is effectively neutered as a serious military threat for the foreseeable future; Hezbollah is still capable but under great pressure on the ground and reorganising after its senior leadership has been decimated; the Houthis are an irritant whose logistical hubs are vulnerable to........