Midterms, Moscow and MAGA’s main man: How 2026 will be shaped |
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What’s in store for the world next year? As our correspondents looked ahead, the thread stitching it all together – or pulling it apart – led back to the White House.
Predicting the activities of Donald Trump is a fool’s errand. Under the 47th US president, expect the unexpected.
On one hand, it’s difficult to see how 2026 could be more disruptive than the year gone by. Trump upended the global trading order by increasing US tariffs to levels not seen since the 1930s, albeit with lots of characteristic flip-flopping and backsliding (he would call it “being flexible”).
He slammed the southern border shut, purged government departments, ripped up diversity and inclusion practices, pulled out of climate accords and global bodies, forced a reckoning over defence spending, bombed Iran, blew up suspected drug boats in international waters, brought Russian leader Vladimir Putin in from the cold, and led Europe and Ukraine on a rollercoaster ride the endpoint of which remains unknown.
Trump 2.0 set a cracking pace from day one. His transition team knew what it wanted to do and how to do it – after all, this was Trump’s second go at changing the country. Much of what came out of the Oval Office resurrected policies from his first term.
Next year will be slower. Trump’s goals are pretty obvious: reduce the US’s trade deficit and keep investment flowing into the country, control inflation and keep prices down for American consumers, hold the House of Representatives at November’s midterm elections (or minimise Republican losses), and – of course – end the Russia-Ukraine war and earn himself the Nobel Peace Prize.
The world’s largest economy enters 2026 with moderate expectations after a mixed year. Economic growth has slowed and unemployment is slightly higher. Trump’s immigration crackdown reduced the supply of labour, but the job market has slowed even more. Inflation is basically where it was a year ago – it did not skyrocket due to Trump’s tariffs, as some predicted, though it has risen over the past few months.
Stockmarkets are going gangbusters, driven by frenzied investment in artificial intelligence (amid warnings of an AI bubble). But that makes for a two-speed economy, with low-income households battling high prices and insecure work, as Philadelphia Federal Reserve president Anna Paulson noted in a recent outlook.
“While headline growth is shaping up to be pretty decent this year, the base of support looks different – with a lot of concentration at the top,” she wrote.
President Donald Trump rolled out the red carpet for Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in Alaska in August.Credit: AP
Trump made a rod for his own back when he campaigned aggressively on affordability, giving struggling voters the impression he could bring down prices for everyday goods. That is proving to be easier said than done. Gas prices are down; the rest not so much, no matter what Trump claims.
Spooked by a bad showing for Republicans at off-year elections in November, the president and his team are clearly feeling the heat. They have shifted focus to domestic economic matters, with Trump and Vice President JD Vance both holding rallies in Pennsylvania in December that are part of a broader affordability roadshow planned for 2026.
Trump has vigorously pushed redistricting plans in multiple states that would advantage Republicans in next year’s midterms – blatant gerrymandering, which is something both sides of US politics have long done. It may help deliver extra seats in pockets of the country, but Trump knows that if voters are angry on election day, it won’t be enough.
On that, the president has a few aces up his sleeve. In 2026, the US will celebrate the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence – the country’s birthday – in what promises to be a blockbuster year of patriotism, pomp and self-congratulation. In the middle of that, the US (with Mexico and Canada) will also host the FIFA World Cup, with a match to be played on Independence Day in Philadelphia.
Trump is working hard to attach himself to sport and general “good vibes”. He has attended football, soccer, tennis and UFC matches, and if you were to summarise his hyperbolic messaging over the past year, it would be his oft-repeated line that America is “the hottest country in the world right now”. In 2026, that might actually be true.
At the same time, the country is no closer to surmounting the intractable problems that have plagued it for so long. Another federal government shutdown is just weeks away – the end of January – unless Democrats and Republicans can overcome their impasse on healthcare. There is no sign of reform on gun violence, despite a rising tide of political violence that struck both sides of the divide in 2025, and made a martyr of conservative activist Charlie Kirk.
Finally, if we accept that Trump’s star will fade in 2026 as the midterms approach, and he gets closer to lame-duck status, then it follows that other stars will rise. Trump is already being asked about anointing a successor for 2028; given his power in the MAGA universe and the Republican Party, his endorsement would be a massive boon. Vance is front and centre, sure, but so is Marco Rubio and, inevitably, Trump’s son, Don Jr. How these men position themselves in 2026 – what they emphasise, where they separate themselves from Trump, whether they declare their hand – are things to watch this year.
– Michael Koziol, North America correspondent
Europe drifted through 2025 as if its citizens had plenty of time to agree........