In Nepean, one in four voters chose One Nation. Both major parties should be worried |
In Nepean, one in four voters chose One Nation. Both major parties should be worried
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Both Labor and Liberal types will tell you the Nepean byelection is a warning sign of what’s to come for their opponents. Though they won’t admit it, both are right. With one in four voters turning to One Nation on Saturday, both sides should be readying for a fight.
The rise of One Nation, which has so far secured 24 per cent of the primary vote, has confirmed that it won’t just be the Coalition fighting to hold on to once-loyal constituents at the state election on November 28.
With 79 per cent of the vote counted, there are some early lessons the two major parties can take away from what happened in the Victorian coastal electorate this weekend.
First, lets turn to the Liberals. Although they will end up with a healthy two-party preferred result, new Liberal MP Anthony Marsh took a sizeable haircut of about 10 per cent in his primary vote, down from retired Liberal MP Sam Groth’s 48 per cent in 2022 to 38 per cent. That’s largely in line with a finding from the Resolve Political Monitor in February that a 10 per cent lift in One Nation’s vote came at the expense of the Coalition.
This is not great news for an opposition hoping public frustration with a Labor government that has been in power for 12 years will fuel their push to victory.
One Nation’s ‘sexy’........