Five years after House v. NCAA accelerated the economic transformation of college sports, the industry is finally entering a phase that mature financial markets inevitably reach: correction.

That is not bad news for athletes. It may ultimately be the healthiest thing that could happen to them. However, this may mean that institutions and their leaders need to adjust their reactive behavior and demonstrate confidence in development.

When NIL first exploded in 2021, the market behaved less like a sustainable ecosystem and more like a speculative bubble. Fear of missing out overtook discipline. Recruiting pressure overtook strategy. Universities, collectives, brands and donors began operating with the urgency of day traders chasing momentum instead of investors evaluating long-term value.

It’s becoming apparent that attention was mistaken for equity, visibility was confused with brand power, social media traction was confused with actual marketability and athlete value was confused with informational fear instead of institutional data.

Ray Dalio has often written that bubbles form when markets begin pricing emotion and future assumptions over underlying........

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