Pakistan’s Future with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan |
Pakistan’s fragile ceasefire with Afghanistan frayed dramatically last month after two incidents Islamabad says were directed from across the border: a suicide bombing outside an Islamabad district court and an attempted assault on the cadet college in Wana. These attacks, the latest in a year that has already seen an alarming uptick in militant operations and calibrated cross-border strikes from Pakistan into Afghanistan earlier this fall, came amid a string of high-level talks in Istanbul and Doha between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban, which officials described as “the last opportunity” to restore functional counterterrorism cooperation. Kabul’s refusal to acknowledge the presence of anti-Pakistan militant groups ultimately stalled progress and led to the collapse of the talks; another meeting between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban this week in Riyadh under Saudi mediation signals ongoing efforts to revive dialogue. Throughout, Pakistan’s message has been that the Taliban’s failure to cooperate on security matters will carry consequences for Afghanistan’s broader regional standing and the durability of its political structures.
The empirical record underscores the stakes for Pakistan: Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) data shows that fatalities among Pakistani security personnel, which hit a lull in the late 2010s and early 2020s, climbed to 685 in 2024, a total that Pakistan had nearly reached by the end of the first three quarters of 2025. The vast majority of these attacks have been concentrated in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan—a pattern distinct from the nationwide violence seen in the late 2000s and early 2010s. The extent of this geographic containment is now a central concern for the Pakistani security establishment.
With Kabul neither constraining cross-border militant activity nor addressing Pakistan’s security concerns, Islamabad’s confidence in the Afghan Taliban’s intent and capacity has gradually eroded, forcing a reassessment of its western frontier—a process years in the making. This article will explore both the drivers and implications of Pakistan’s shift toward a deterrence-driven counterterrorism strategy vis-à-vis the Afghan Taliban that seeks to shape Taliban behavior through calibrated military and diplomatic pressure, and the internal and regional dynamics undergirding the Taliban’s own position.
“With Kabul neither constraining cross-border militant activity nor addressing Pakistan’s security concerns, Islamabad’s confidence in the Afghan Taliban’s intent and capacity has gradually eroded, forcing a reassessment of its western frontier—a process years in the making.”
Pakistan’s Regional Posture and Strategic Signaling
The inability of the Afghan Taliban to rein in the TTP has been a central factor in the resurgence of violence. Reports that Afghan authorities deny harboring militants underscore the extent of the disconnect between public messaging by the Taliban and the realities as understood by Pakistani intelligence and military planners.