Pakistan’s Coercive Afghan Diplomacy: Doomed to Failure? |
The employment of military force as a bargaining tool, or the threat to use it, is an essential component of diplomacy and is now widely accepted as standard practice in statecraft. Coercive diplomacy, in particular, is a defensive strategy used to counter an opponent’s attempts to alter the status quo to their advantage. Pakistan has been trying to use coercive diplomacy to compel the Taliban regime to guarantee that the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has been listed as a terrorist organization by both the United States and the United Nations for over a decade, does not use Afghan soil against it. So far, however, Pakistan’s coercive and diplomatic efforts have failed to yield a positive outcome, the current ceasefire mediated by Türkiye and Qatar notwithstanding.
While Pakistan has historically used coercive diplomacy against various regimes in Kabul, this latest episode began after the country experienced a sharp rise in militant attacks in recent months, largely claimed by the TTP. First were the strikes in Kabul in October, which were followed by skirmishes over the Durand Line and several more aerial attacks in Paktika, Khost, and Kunar provinces. While the Taliban blamed Pakistan for these attacks, Pakistan has denied responsibility. As a second coercive tool, Pakistan closed its transit routes with Afghanistan, on which Afghanistan relies heavily for its trade with India and the rest of the world. Pakistan further turned the screw by expelling around 241,000 Afghan refugees in November alone, including those who possess valid refugee documents, putting the total number of Afghan refugees expelled in 2025 by Pakistan at over one million.
Pakistan’s coercive diplomacy is shaped by its internal political and strategic considerations. However, the Taliban government’s continued refusal to strike a deal regarding the TTP’s activities and its persistence in labeling the TTP as Pakistan’s internal problem highlight the significant limitations of Pakistan’s coercive strategies. This article will therefore examine and assess Pakistan’s coercive diplomacy against the Taliban from a theoretical perspective.
Assessing Coercive Diplomacy
Scholars are torn on the effectiveness of coercive diplomacy. Many link the effectiveness of coercive threats to the coercer’s power, as does Todd Sechser. However, Peter Jakobsen counters this by noting that out of thirty-six coercive diplomacy cases from 1990 to 2008, only five resulted in lasting success. Other researchers believe that the success of coercive diplomacy hinges on the rationality of the demand. Understanding when and how coercive diplomacy succeeds remains a key issue in international relations.
In general terms, coercion succeeds when the expected pain of complying with a threat outweighs the anticipated benefits of resistance. However, there is little agreement on what counts as a successful outcome of coercive diplomacy in the first place. Bruce Jentleson and Christopher Whytock offer a methodology that classifies the variables necessary........