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Less than a month ago, in the very first edition of this revamped newsletter, we warned you that Donald Trump’s tenuous ceasefire agreement with Iran could very easily go sideways. Well, the two sides are once again lobbing missiles at each other, and Trump is declaring the ceasefire “over.” We don’t love being right about this one, but here’s how we got here.

What exactly is going on?The fighting resumed this week, after Iran reportedly fired at ships in the Strait of Hormuz, an important waterway that the country effectively closed early in the war. Those attacks prompted renewed U.S. strikes on Iranian cities, which Iran responded to by shooting at U.S. military bases in the region. “To me, I think it’s over,” Trump said of the ceasefire yesterday.

OK, but why did the ceasefire collapse?In short, both sides accused the other of breaking it. The deal Trump and Iran signed just weeks ago, formally called a memorandum of understanding, was meant to extend a preexisting ceasefire and reopen the strait. But its vague wording was ripe for misinterpretation. Iran seems to have taken the text—which says in part that Iran “will make arrangements using its best efforts........

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