How do you do damage control when you have already done so much damage? That is the conundrum Western and Ukrainian leaders are currently facing.
Since the triumphal comeback of former president and now president-elect Donald Trump in the US, it is very likely that he will follow through on his campaign promise to quickly end the proxy war in and through Ukraine.
That is good news, especially for a lot of Ukrainians – and Russians, too – who will, if things work out, not die in a war that could have been avoided in its entirety and has already been decided in Russia’s favor. For Western and Ukrainian leaders, things may feel a little more complicated: As Moscow is winning on the battlefield, to end the war at this stage will require major Ukrainian and Western concessions, going substantially beyond the deal that was on offer in the spring of 2022 but that the West made Kiev reject: Now, Ukraine will lose more territory – beyond Crimea, that is – and its toxic NATO “perspective,” too.
Russia has been consistently clear about its position: Neither Ukraine nor the West can expect peace “on the cheap.” Instead, a settlement will have to reflect their failure and Moscow’s success. There is nothing – as war goes – exceptional in that: If the West – currently wallowing in vulgar Russophobia – had managed to gain the upper hand, neither Russia nor its current government nor its leader could have expected anything but merciless punishment and humiliation. Indeed, it is likely that Moscow will, in the end, be more flexible and rational than the West would have been.
That Moscow, however, is certainly not in the mood to behave as if it had lost the war was the message that Germany’s lame-duck chancellor Olaf Scholz received when calling Russian president Vladimir Putin: Putin did not give an inch, reiterating Russia’s position on who is to blame for the conflict (NATO and its overreach, which is largely correct) and that Russia has always been open to negotiations (also correct). Finally, he reminded his caller that any “possible agreements” must take into account Russian national security interests and “rest on the new territorial realities, and, most importantly, eliminate the original causes of the conflict.” In translation: territorial losses and full neutrality and absolutely no NATO for Ukraine (not officially, not a little, not on the sly: This is a case of “nyet” means “nyet,” as granite as the Neva embankments in Putin’s native St. Petersburg).
That is a summary of the minimum Moscow will demand, and if that minimum – and quite possibly more, such as an end to sanctions and a general, more far-reaching reset of the security architecture in Europe – is not met, then there won’t be peace, and Ukraine and the West will lose later and even worse. Russia is also unwilling to let the incoming US administration get away with setting itself up as an innocent peacemaker. Rather, Moscow expects that Trump’s Washington will correct “the criminal mistakes” of the current Biden administration, to quote the spokeswoman of Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova. In other words: No more free rides; and no........