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Now Imperial College scientists behind flawed Covid-19 advice claim lockdown saved 3mn lives! It’s unscientific, self-serving BS

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A new paper from the team of Imperial College modelers who scared the hell out of governments around the world, published yesterday by Nature, claims “major non-pharmaceutical interventions, and lockdown in particular, have had a large effect on reducing transmission” of Covid-19.

They claim these interventions saved over three million lives in 11 countries across Europe. But a little digging suggests that this paper grossly overstates its case and can’t be used to justify the lockdowns that most of these countries endured.

The headline numbers from the paper are that, as of May 4 (when restrictions started to be lifted in some larger countries), just under 129,000 deaths had been reported in these countries from Covid-19. However, if no action had been taken by governments, the modelers suggest, based on their original “do nothing” scenario, that 3.2 million deaths would have occurred. Scary stuff.

For individual countries, the number of lives apparently saved is even more impressive. By May 4, Italy had 29,079 deaths, but would have had 670,000 deaths were it not for lockdown. The UK would have had 500,000 deaths, but actually had 28,734. In Germany, 560,000 lives were saved; in Spain, it was 450,000.

In a briefing, Samir Bhatt, who co-led one of the studies by researchers at Imperial College London, told journalists: “The risk of a second wave happening if all interventions and all precautions are abandoned is very real.” He added that “any claims that this is all over, that we’ve reached the herd immunity threshold, can be firmly rejected. We are only at the beginning of this pandemic.” Not only were the lockdowns justified, but continued restrictions are essential.

However, a table at the end of the report suggests there may be a different story to tell. For example, many commentators have condemned Sweden for imposing only light restrictions, leaving bars and restaurants open and continuing schooling........

© RT.com

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