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Iran is high-hanging fruit, which is why US is unlikely to attack

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However, a full-scale conflict is still unlikely, because Iran, unlike other countries the US has attacked, is no soft target.

The US already deployed the USS ‘Abraham Lincoln’ carrier strike group and a bomber task force to the Middle East earlier in the month. The Pentagon also announced that a battery of Patriot missiles and transport ship, the USS ‘Arlington,’ were on their way to the Gulf.

Taken together with the fiercely anti-Iranian rhetoric of foaming-at-the-mouth neo-con figures in the Trump administration, such as National Security Advisor John Bolton, and unsubstantiated claims that Iran had sabotaged four tankers in the Persian Gulf, does this mean we are heading for a conflict?

While we shouldn’t dismiss the risks of something very big kicking off soon, as a betting man, my money is on the US NOT attacking the Islamic Republic.

To use racing parlance, just consider the ‘form.’ All the countries directly attacked or invaded by the US and its allies since the end of the old Cold War were what could accurately be described as low-hanging fruit. They were either militarily weak, had no major allies who could be guaranteed to help, and/or had possessed no credible threat which could deter an attack.

Yugoslavia in 1999 had a strong and well-respected army, the JNA, and reasonably good air defenses. But it was internationally isolated, weakened by sanctions, and had no allies to come to its aid. Russia could have protected Yugoslavia from attack, but the US knew that the corrupt Boris Yeltsin could........

© RT.com