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Is Russia-Ukraine war possible?

24 5 65

Lately, there has been an increasing number of voices suggesting the possibility of a large-scale armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Russian and Ukrainian media alike have published stories expressing this very idea. With that in mind, let us look at the likelihood of an actual war breaking out between Moscow and Kiev under present circumstances.

When assessing the probability of a conflict between the two countries, both Russian and Ukrainian military officials and analysts usually start by breaking down the balance of forces, the capabilities of both sides, the proficiency of their respective troops, and the tactical and technical characteristics of their weapons. What they tend to overlook, however, is military-political aspects, as well as strategic and tactical components.

Not to mention, some of the assessments and predictions are alarmist in nature, filled with blatant fear mongering. For example, you are sure to come across headlines such as 'The probability of full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine is estimated at 99%', 'Conflict is inevitable, as the West is preparing Ukraine for war with Russia', 'Ukraine is planning a large-scale invasion of Russia with the goal of seizing its southern regions and taking back Crimea', 'NATO troops will operate under the Ukrainian flag, posing as Ukraine's army', and similar kind of drivel and plain fabrication.

The authors of such publications never bother to point out the possible military and political goals of the two potential warring parties. Neither do they tell whether Russia or Ukraine are actually capable of achieving said goals. Moreover, hardly ever do you see them spending a line or two sketching out a possible post-war settlement or explaining what the new balance of power will be like once the hostilities are over.

Yet this........

© RT.com