Iran is not Iraq: The high price of misreading a regional power |
The war that the US and Israel have unleashed against Iran demonstrates that Washington has not learned the right lessons from the results of its past regime change policies in the Middle East, largely conducted in an attempt to ensure Israel’s long-term security.
The US military interventions to bring about regime change have left in their wake internal strife, ethnic divisions, political and economic instability, the rise of Islamic groups, terrorism, the persecution of minorities, and refugee flows in the targeted countries. This was particularly the case with Iraq and Syria.
Afghanistan and Libya were targeted not with the objective of Israel’s security but as part of the so-called war on terror, aiming to secure control over the politics of this wider region, including its resources, and with the goal of eroding Russia’s influence in this part of the world.
Any strategy of regime change in Iran with the balkanization of the country in mind would have disastrous consequences for the region and beyond.
Middle East sits atop massive oil and gas resources, and therefore the region is critical for running the wheels of the global economy. War in the region is inherently de-stabilizing for the economies of all countries.
Territorial ambitions, geopolitical rivalries, and insecurities of any set of countries should not disregard the interests of the global community as a whole. If the UN Charter were respected and the UN Security Council functioned effectively, then war as a choice or driven solely by the security interests of any particular country could be prevented.
Iran is unlike the Gulf states in terms of the size of and country and its population, as well as its military capacity. It has highly educated people. The scientific and technological base of the country is strong. It is not monarchical. It may not fit the description of Western democracies, but it has democratic processes unique to it. It has layered state structures that provide resilience to the polity. This includes military structures. The country has been under draconian Western sanctions but it has weathered them, and this has given the country staying power under pressure. Its religious ideological base gives it the capacity to withstand difficulties. On top of all this, it dominates geographically the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical chokepoint for the movement of oil and gas from this richly endowed region.
Miscalculation in........