At last week’s GOP convention, President Donald Trump told the enthusiastic crowd he had a problem. He told them that when he’s not on the ballot, they say his people don’t show up in big numbers to vote for other Republicans, putting their majorities in the House and Senate in jeopardy. He followed that up by imploring his supporters, “I’m asking you to pretend that I’m on the ballot … just one more time.” 

With that, Trump made the upcoming midterm elections all about him. Was it a sound strategic decision made by Trump and his team? Was it simply a nod to the reality that midterms, historically, are a reflection of voters’ view of the sitting president and the job he is doing? Or in this case, given Trump’s sinking job approval, an attempt to make the best out of a challenging situation?

This election is all about Trump, and he seems fine with that. But will a focus on the president rather than congressional Republicans’ legislative record help or hurt their chances?

There are two ways to look at it. First, analyzing previous elections, how did Republican candidates do with Trump on the ballot versus when he was not? Second, how will his job approval numbers affect the election outcome? 

The critical element in Trump’s win in 2024 was his ability to carry all seven presidential battleground states. In five of those seven states, however, there was also a U.S. Senate race on the ballot: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Out of those five races, only one Republican managed a win, Dave McCormick, who squeaked out a 0.2-point victory in Pennsylvania. 

The four GOP losing candidates were facing better Democratic candidates who ran better campaigns than the........

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