Technically, Punxsutawney Phil emerges next week to predict an early spring or more grim winter. But for all practical purposes, Congress is once again facing its own version of Groundhog Day — the possibility of yet another partial government shutdown at the end of this week.  

We’ve all been here before. Despite partisan differences, it appeared that Senate negotiators had reached general agreement on a funding bills package moving forward. But recent events in Minneapolis involving Immigration and Customs Enforcement have led many Democrats to threaten to pull their support for Homeland Security funding, currently part of the overall agreement.  

What Democrats want remains unclear. But if no agreement can be reached before Sunday, they may well throw the dice and risk another significant partial shutdown that would impact far more than ICE or even DHS. Is that a bet worth making for Democrats, given the outcome of their last foray into shutdown politics?

Democrats didn’t come out favorably after the last shutdown, which centered on the specific issue of extending the temporary enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits, which was itself viewed somewhat positively by the public. Democrats were also helped by the lack of a Republican health care alternative, a constant dynamic in the health care policy debate. 

But Democrats hit a wall with their decision to prevent a vote to keep the government from shutting down with an unpopular filibuster. The issue for voters then became the impact of a federal shutdown rather than extension of the temporary enhanced ACA tax credits.  

This shouldn’t have come as a surprise to Democrats. The electorate usually has a very negative reaction........

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