Online Gambling

The Federal Government Once Tried To Restrict Prediction Markets. Now It's Suing States To Save Them.

In a bid to “reaffirm its exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets such as Kalshi, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is suing six states for interfering in federally regulated financial markets.

Tosin Akintola | 5.1.2026 1:15 PM

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(Illustration: Lex Villena; Midjourney)

"When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?" Depending on when you believe this will happen and which prediction market you're using, a $100 position on this event contract could net as much as $400. But if you live in one of the states suing the prediction market Kalshi, you might not be able to profit off your hunch.

In April, Wisconsin sued Kalshi and several other prediction markets—platforms that let people make bets on the outcomes of various events—alleging that they facilitate illegal sports gambling. The platforms, and their millions of users, have found an unlikely ally: the federal government.

Shortly after Wisconsin filed suit, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)—the federal body that regulates prediction........

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