Prediction Markets Called the Midterms. Lawmakers Still Call Them Gambling. |
Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets Called the Midterms. Lawmakers Still Call Them Gambling.
You can bet the incoming Democratic majority is watching the action on prediction markets.
Tosin Akintola | 11.6.2026 3:00 PM
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(Photo: Anthony Behar/Sipa USA/Newscom)
Democrats clearly had a good week, taking both the House and the Senate overwhelmingly. However, one overlooked winner of the "bluenami" is prediction markets, which are fast becoming a fixture in American elections.
As of late Monday, "Americans had wagered nearly $1.9 billion on the midterm elections…risking money on over 7,000 different outcomes," according to The Washington Post. As early as April, traders at Polymarket and Kalshi priced a blue wave (Democrats winning more than 235 House seats and at least 51 Senate seats) at over 50 percent. On PredictIt, a similar blue tsunami market was priced at 66 cents the morning of the election, while traders at Kalshi and Polymarket both had the probability at over 70 percent.
An hour before the first votes were tallied on election night, leading prediction markets such as Polymarket and PredictIt correctly forecast that Democrats would gain control of both chambers of Congress, with over 90 percent likelihood that the party would take the House. As of Wednesday morning, the favorite on Kalshi won 479 of 487 midterm races. "That's 98%, forecasted before a single vote was counted," the company wrote on X.
For prediction markets, accurately pricing election outcomes doesn't just provide legitimacy; it also gives the platforms a chance to be seen as more than a sports gambling product (a classification lawmakers have used to target the platforms). Ironically,........