Crime

A Survey of Crime Experts Deflates the 'Trump Effect' That Supposedly Reduced Homicides

The respondents did not think much of the policies that the president says produced "the largest drop in violent crime in American history."

Jacob Sullum | 10.7.2026 4:30 PM

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After surging during the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. homicide rate has declined sharply in the last few years, hitting a record low in 2025. Although President Donald Trump says he is responsible for that welcome development, a new report from the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) suggests that factors unrelated to his policies played a much more important role.

Trump has been eager to cite the CCJ while claiming credit for the homicide drop. But he is unlikely to tout this report, which is based on a survey of 48 crime experts who convened to assess four dozen possible explanations for the decline. None of them thought the federal policies highlighted by Trump were major contributors.

Last August, the FBI reported that the homicide rate fell by 18 percent from 2024 to 2025, an unprecedented drop. "The 2025 murder rate of 4.1 per 100,000 inhabitants is tied with 1955 and 1956 for the lowest murder rate," the FBI said. The CCJ, based on data from criminologist Randolph Roth's 2009 book American Homicide, goes further, saying the 2025 rate was the lowest recorded since at least 1900—a conclusion that Trump has repeatedly echoed.

Trump immediately took credit for that historic drop. "We have the numbers down because of what the federal government's doing," he averred during a speech at the Nassau County, New York, police academy on August 14. "Everyone knows we've done an amazing job."

Four days later, a White House press release reinforced that message. "President Trump Delivers the Largest Drop in Violent Crime in American History," the headline said. Trump "backed law enforcement, empowered the FBI to hunt predators instead of political targets, and rejected the failed Democrat lunacy that left communities reeling," the White House bragged. "The results are clear: fewer........

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