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Tariffs on Chinese Imports Have Accomplished Approximately Nothing

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23.09.2021

Free Trade

Eric Boehm | 9.23.2021 12:25 PM

At the core of former President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies was a relatively simple—perhaps overly simplified—promise: Tariffs on Chinese-made products would drive manufacturers out of China.

"Many tariffed companies will be leaving China for Vietnam and other such countries in Asia," Trump claimed in May 2019, about a year after his tariffs were first imposed. "China wants to make a deal so badly. Thousands of companies are leaving because of the Tariffs," he tweeted a few months later, suggesting that the outflow was already underway. "If you want certainty, bring your plants back to America," Robert Lighthizer, Trump's U.S. trade representative, lightly threatened in a New York Times op-ed in May 2020, as the trade war's second anniversary arrived.

But the tariffs failed to achieve that primary policy aim, according to a new paper published by researchers at the University of Kansas and the University of California, Irvine. Roughly 11 percent of multinational companies exited China in 2019, the first full year in which tariffs were in place—a significant increase from previous years. But the overall number of multinational firms operating in China actually increased during that same year, as foreign investment continued to flow into China even as the trade war ratcheted up costs.

In fact, the number of U.S.-based multinationals in China actually........

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