What Polymarket knows: The rise of a new insider trading |
What Polymarket knows: The rise of a new insider trading
A Polymarket bet placed shortly before news of U.S. strikes on Iran turned $87,000 into $553,000 — raising questions about insider information
Michael Nagle / Bloomberg via Getty Images
A version of this article originally appeared in Quartz’s members-only Weekend Brief newsletter. Quartz members get access to exclusive newsletters and more. Sign up here.
An account called "Magamyman" placed an $87,000 bet on U.S. strikes against Iran roughly 71 minutes before news of the attacks broke publicly. The odds at the time sat at 17%. By the time the smoke cleared over Tehran, the position had turned into more than $553,000.
That trade — and at least five others like it, flagged by blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps as netting a collective $1.2 million — is the clearest illustration yet of what prediction markets have quietly become. Not just a novel forecasting tool or a quirky corner of the internet where people bet on Oscar winners and Federal Reserve decisions, but a live, liquid market where anyone with advance knowledge of world events can monetize it, including, apparently, a military campaign.
Over $529 million was traded on Polymarket contracts tied to........