The AI boom that would make AI data centers in space necessary may not last |
The AI boom that would make AI data centers in space necessary may not last
AI infrastructure spending has never been larger. Efficiency gains are eroding the demand assumptions that make orbital data centers worth building
YASUYOSHI CHIBA / AFP via Getty Images
AI data centers are running out of room on Earth. Power grids are strained, permits take years, and the land required keeps growing. Space looks like the answer, but only if AI needs so much compute, for so long, that the conventional grid can't keep up. If it doesn't, the orbital thesis will collapse before it gets off the ground.
So far, the numbers are large. Global data center electricity consumption is projected to more than double by 2030. The four largest technology companies have committed $725 billion in capital expenditure for 2026 alone. Analysts have underestimated actual spending for two years running.
But the push for orbital data centers is still predicated on assumptions about how much computing power AI will require, how much enterprises will pay for it, and how long both trends will hold. Each of those assumptions is now being tested.
The demand forecast is enormous
The International Energy Agency projects that global data center electricity consumption will rise from 415 terawatt-hours in 2024 to about 945 TWh by 2030. A terawatt-hour is roughly the amount of electricity the United Kingdom uses in a month. AI is the primary driver, with electricity demand from AI-optimized data centers projected to more than quadruple over that........