The Illusion of Certainty |
Ever since our ancestors first stood upright and squinted at the horizon, we've been wired to notice patterns. A rustle in the grass might have meant a stalking predator. Dark clouds often meant rain. Those who made these connections and guessed that one thing caused another tended to survive. Over time, this ability to link events became one of our most significant evolutionary advantages. It's how we built tools, tamed fire, and eventually invented Wi-Fi.
The instincts that kept us alive throughout history are also responsible for many of our problems. The brain can't help but view stimuli as ongoing threats and tries to find a source or reason, even when there's no valid connection. A seemingly obvious cause-and-effect relationship may merely represent a chance occurrence or a simple correlation that's been exaggerated into a narrative framework. Although the effects are considered "minor" at first glance, the cumulative impact can affect virtually every aspect of our lives and may have ramifications for the world.
Picture what it was like for early humans crouching down in a field of tall grass. When they hear an unexpected sound, like a fast rustling noise, the ones who shouted "Lion!" and ran away survived. The ones who thought, "Hmm, maybe it was the wind," did not always get to find out if they were right. According to M. Stuart-Fox (2015), an evolutionary biologist from Australia, this ability to think about cause and effect allowed early humans to identify potential threats before they occurred. This ability also allowed them to quickly react to an immediate threat rather than take time to think through a situation before responding. Therefore, this ability served to keep early humans alive. Essentially, evolution did not create us to be accurate. Evolution made us stay alive. To operate and respond quickly rather than analyze what was happening was most advantageous. Because of this need to respond quickly,........