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Prediction markets allow participants to trade on the outcome of future events.

Prediction markets are gaining popularity and may increase the risk of gambling addiction.

Counselors must be informed about prediction markets and able to recognize the signs of behavioral addictions.

Gambling is defined as “risking something of value in the hopes of obtaining something of greater value” (American Psychiatric Association, 2013). In light of the pervasiveness of online gambling and sports betting, all counselors (rather than only those located near casinos) must be able to recognize and respond to problematic or addictive gambling behaviors among clients.

Publicly accessible prediction market platforms have created spaces where gambling-like behaviors can occur, and may influence gambling disorder prevalence rates (Johnson & Chan, 2026). Kalshi (founded in 2018) and Polymarket (founded in 2020) are two popular prediction market platforms, and established financial technology (“fintech”) companies like Robinhood have recently incorporated prediction market hubs into their platforms. To underscore their rise in popularity, the Pew Research Center reported that global trading on Kalshi and Polymarket rose from below $5 billion in late 2025 to approximately $24 billion in April of this year (Radde, 2026). Thus, counselors must be informed regarding the nature of prediction markets and potential risks.

What is a prediction market?

At their core, prediction markets invite individuals to invest and trade on the outcome of future events (called event contracts). Participants buy and sell binary (yes/no) contracts reflecting their belief about the outcome of a future event. Prices for contracts are determined by probabilities linked to the general market's consensus (which change in real time). Correct predictions earn the participant money ($1 per share), while incorrect predictions earn zero dollars.

The range of future events on which to make predictions is extensive. Topics include sports, politics, culture, climate, education, entertainment, commodities, crypto, tech, mentions, and more. For example, participants can........

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