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How to Count Humans

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NEW YORK – New research published this July in The Lancet forecasts that continued growth “through the century is no longer the most likely trajectory for the world’s population.” Rather, the global population is likely to peak in 2064 at 9.7 billion, before declining to 8.8 billion by 2100. The authors project that the populations of 23 countries – notably Japan, Thailand, Spain, and Ukraine – will be at most half their 2017 size by 2100, while the population of “another 34 countries will probably decline by 25-50%, including China, with a forecasted 48.0% decline.”

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    By contrast, Nigeria’s population is expected to grow 3.8-fold between 2017 and 2100, though its average fertility rate is expected to drop from 5.1 to 1.7........

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