To Strengthen Climate Resilience, Focus on Social Protection
LONDON—The idea that the climate crisis is diverting global attention and funding away from the eradication of poverty and hunger perpetuates a dangerous misconception of both problems. For millions of the world’s poorest people, climate change is not a future risk but a present reality, exacerbating the vulnerabilities and inequalities that block escape routes from extreme poverty. Unfortunately, the tendency to treat poverty and climate as separate issues has created policy silos, squandering opportunities to develop integrated strategies that create a virtuous circle of climate justice, strengthened resilience, and inclusive growth.
Attila Kisbenedek/AFP via Getty Images Politics 0 Why Orbán Lost László Bruszt The downfall of Hungary's autocratic prime minister, whose model of "illiberal democracy" became a lodestar to many on the right—was a consequence of that model's own logic. Whatever happens next, one thing is certain: democracy's friends and foes alike will be watching closely. says that an illiberal regime with no internal or external constraints necessarily becomes undisciplined.
The downfall of Hungary's autocratic prime minister, whose model of "illiberal democracy" became a lodestar to many on the right—was a consequence of that model's own logic. Whatever happens next, one thing is certain: democracy's friends and foes alike will be watching closely.
Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images Longer Reads 0 No Exit from Stalin Nina L. Khrushcheva As misguided as the Bolshevik vision was, it was driven by a desire for progress—something that leaders like Nikita Khrushchev understood. The opposite is true of Vladimir Putin’s fundamentally regressive vision for Russia. considers what a new history of the late Soviet Union says about Russia under Vladimir Putin.
As misguided as the Bolshevik vision was, it was driven by a desire for progress—something that leaders like Nikita Khrushchev understood. The opposite is true of Vladimir Putin’s fundamentally regressive vision for Russia.
Jonathan Raa/NurPhoto via Getty Images Politics 0 How Trump’s Crypto Push Is Undermining American Power Jayati Ghosh warns that the administration’s policies are turning digital assets into a geopolitical weapon.
How Trump’s Crypto Push Is Undermining American Power
The adverse impact of climate shocks on poverty is increasingly visible. In 2022, severe floods devastated Pakistan and caused at least $30 billion in damage, ruining vast swaths of cropland, sweeping away homes, and destroying roads, schools, and health clinics. Poverty rates surged from 21% before the floods to 28% today. In the same year, the Horn of Africa was experiencing its fifth consecutive failed rainy season, resulting in the worst drought in 40 years. Millions of children are now living with the effects of the acute malnutrition that followed.
Moreover, countries are increasingly confronting simultaneous climate shocks. In Brazil, drought in the Amazon Basin poses a real and immediate threat to the livelihoods of more than 30 million people, as well as the integrity of fragile ecosystems and hydropower assets. Meanwhile, the state of Rio Grande do Sul is still recovering from the devastating floods of 2024, which displaced over half a million people and led to rising poverty.
While no country or community is immune to climate shocks, the world’s poorest people are being hit first and hardest. According to one estimate, climate change could increase the number of people living in extreme poverty by up to 122 million by 2030, owing largely to crop losses and rising food prices in Africa and South Asia. In megacities like Lagos, Dhaka, and Manila, densely populated informal settlements face acute risks from heat waves and floods.
Climate shocks trap poor households in a downward spiral. Droughts and floods not only wipe out crops but also destroy homes and kill livestock. Lacking insurance or access to safety nets, the poor are often forced into distress sales of the very assets they need for early recovery. Humanitarian aid may save lives, but it invariably delivers too little, too late to prevent people from falling deeper into poverty.
How do we prevent the climate crisis from reversing decades of progress on poverty reduction? In our view, there are two imperatives. First, we must keep the 2015 Paris climate agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5° Celsius within reach. That means we cannot afford to move at the pace of the most recalcitrant negotiators. Thus, Brazil has called for multilateral coalitions willing to work at the speed and scale required to accelerate the transition to net-zero carbon emissions.
Secure your copy of PS Quarterly: Winners & Losers – and save $20
In the new issue of our magazine, leading thinkers examine how recent developments, from the AI revolution to intensifying geopolitical volatility, are reshuffling the economic and financial deck and generating new winners and losers across the global economy.
Subscribe to PS Premium now, with a $20 discount, to read the issue, featuring Claudia Goldin, Mark Blyth, Dambisa Moyo and others.
Second, we must empower poor people to adapt to a crisis they played no part in creating. Here, too, speed and scale are critical. At the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Brazil (COP30), governments recognized that their national adaptation plans should be embedded within their development strategies. Overwhelmingly financed from national budgets, these plans present an opportunity to integrate climate adaptation with poverty reduction. Rich countries have now pledged to triple adaptation finance from the admittedly low current annual level of $40 billion.
We now need to ensure that increased adaptation finance delivers efficient and equitable results where they count—in the lives of the poor. The current architecture is unfit for that purpose because it is too fragmented and structured around increasingly anachronistic distinctions between climate, development, and humanitarian finance, as if these strands can be neatly compartmentalized.
Bilateral donors, multilateral development banks (MDBs), and mechanisms like the Green Climate Fund, Global Environment Facility, and the Adaptation Fund account for most of what is currently categorized as climate-adaptation finance. As finance ministers noted ahead of COP30, delivery is marked by weak coordination, overlapping remits and associated turf battles, an emphasis on small-scale initiatives, and protracted delays between project approval and disbursement of funds. Governments typically have to parcel national adaptation plans into project-by-project funding requests—a process that comes with immense transaction costs.
Other interventions have been downplayed, partly because they are seen as part of a parallel “poverty finance” domain. Social protection is a case in point. National programs providing cash transfers to vulnerable households in response to climate shocks have a proven track record. Using digital identification, they can rapidly scale up support to address the impact of droughts and floods. Kenya’s Hunger Safety Net Programme provides regular support to around 800,000 people, but that number rises to around 4.5 million during droughts. Similar programs in Somalia, Ethiopia, and countries across the Sahel demonstrate that effective safety nets can be created even when governments have limited capacity and are mired in armed conflict.
From the perspective of the people at the sharp end of the climate crisis, the current system makes little sense. We need climate adaptation finance that improves access to meteorological information, drought-resistant seeds, and new irrigation technologies. But in the absence of increased investment in social protection, climate shocks will become the catalyst for unprecedented reversals in poverty reduction. Currently, just one in five people in the poorest countries are covered by a safety net.
Brazil’s experience is instructive. Under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, social protection has played a central role not only in cutting poverty and combating hunger, but also in adapting to climate change. Efforts have been made to export this model through the creation of a Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty, which was established under Brazil’s G20 presidency. This international platform could enable donors, MDBs, and UN agencies to pool their resources and channel them through national social-protection systems that respond to climate risks. As an ODI Global report argues, such an approach would help prevent duplication, lower transaction costs, and reduce inefficiencies.
With international cooperation under attack and aid budgets falling, it is abundantly clear that we must change course. Vulnerable communities living on the front lines of the climate crisis have a right to expect more from multilateralism.
